Thunder vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 10
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Wednesday, March 10 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 58% chance to win and projects a 109-112 score (Thunder – Raptors), about 221 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Raptors W1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 112 – 109 Thunder, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCTOR
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| OKC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.