Raptors vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, December 13
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Sunday, December 13 at 3:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 57% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Raptors – Thunder), about 221 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Thunder L1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Thunder 112 – 110 Raptors, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TOROKC
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.