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Wizards vs Spurs prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9

Tue, Mar 9 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · MNMT, DAZN SAS

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

106-124

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

8% win WSHwin SA 92%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin17.9

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Tuesday, March 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 92% chance to win and projects a 106-124 score (Wizards – Spurs), about 231 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Spurs W3, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 12% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 124 – 106 Wizards, a margin of about 17.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / WSH -7.7 per game

+14.4

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Spurs

+17.9

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

74%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

12%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHSA

113.1

Points scored / game

118.9

122.2

Points allowed / game

111.1

48.0 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

28.5 %

3-point %

34.6 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

83.1 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

45.0

25.8

Assists / game

28.2

7.4

Steals / game

9.8

5.6

Blocks / game

6.6

13.6

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 8% · SA 92%

ESPN BPI

WSH 17% · SA 83%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		SA
2-3	Record	3-2
113.1	Points scored / game	118.9
122.2	Points allowed / game	111.1
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.