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Spurs vs Wizards prediction NBA · Friday, January 1

Fri, Jan 1 · 5:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · NBA TV, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

120-109

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

83% win SAwin WSH 17%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin11.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Friday, January 1 at 5:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 83% chance to win and projects a 120-109 score (Spurs – Wizards), about 229 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Wizards L2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 109 – 120 Spurs, a margin of about 11.7 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / SA +6.6 per game

-14.4

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSpurs played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Wizards

-11.7

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Spurs win by 10+

55%

Stat comparison Current season

SAWSH

118.9

Points scored / game

113.1

111.1

Points allowed / game

122.2

46.0 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

78.3 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

40.0

28.2

Assists / game

25.8

9.8

Steals / game

7.4

6.6

Blocks / game

5.6

12.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 83% · WSH 17%

ESPN BPI

SA 78% · WSH 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		WSH
3-2	Record	2-3
118.9	Points scored / game	113.1
111.1	Points allowed / game	122.2
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W3	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.