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Grizzlies vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9

Tue, Mar 9 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

116-113

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

59% win MEMwin DAL 41%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin2.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Tuesday, March 9 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 59% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Grizzlies – Mavericks), about 229 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks and the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 116 Grizzlies, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks and the Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / MEM -1.8 per game

-1.0

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-2.7

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Grizzlies win by 10+

28%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMDAL

115.2

Points scored / game

114.1

117.3

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.3 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

39.1 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

82.8 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

25.0

Assists / game

27.6

6.3

Steals / game

9.0

6.3

Blocks / game

7.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 59% · DAL 41%

ESPN BPI

MEM 38% · DAL 63%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MEM		DAL
4-0	Record	3-2
115.2	Points scored / game	114.1
117.3	Points allowed / game	117.4
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W4	Current streak	W2
4-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.