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Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 12

Tue, Jan 12 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-119

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

28% win DALwin MEM 72%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin7.3

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Tuesday, January 12 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 72% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Mavericks – Grizzlies), about 230 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 119 – 112 Mavericks, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / DAL -2.8 per game

+1.0

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+7.3

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALMEM

114.1

Points scored / game

115.2

117.4

Points allowed / game

117.3

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.7 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

50.0

27.6

Assists / game

25.0

9.0

Steals / game

6.3

7.4

Blocks / game

6.3

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 28% · MEM 72%

ESPN BPI

DAL 54% · MEM 46%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DAL		MEM
3-2	Record	4-0
114.1	Points scored / game	115.2
117.4	Points allowed / game	117.3
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W2	Current streak	W4
3-2	Last 10 games	4-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.