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Suns vs Magic prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9

Tue, Mar 9 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

113-112

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

51% win PHXwin ORL 49%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin0.2

Projected total224

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Tuesday, March 9 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Suns – Magic), about 224 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Magic L1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic) and Izaiyah Nelson (Magic). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Magic 112 – 113 Suns, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / PHX -1.4 per game

-0.8

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Magic

-0.2

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXORL

111.9

Points scored / game

113.6

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.6 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

31.9 %

3-point %

31.4 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

73.9 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

41.3

25.3

Assists / game

26.0

8.7

Steals / game

7.8

5.3

Blocks / game

4.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 51% · ORL 49%

ESPN BPI

PHX 38% · ORL 62%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHX		ORL
1-2	Record	1-3
111.9	Points scored / game	113.6
113.6	Points allowed / game	116.2
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
L1	Current streak	L1
1-2	Last 10 games	1-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.