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Magic vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, November 5

Thu, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

110-114

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

35% win ORLwin PHX 65%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin4.8

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Thursday, November 5 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 65% chance to win and projects a 110-114 score (Magic – Suns), about 224 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Suns L1, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 114 – 110 Magic, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / ORL -2.3 per game

+0.8

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Suns

+4.8

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

34%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Magic win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLPHX

113.6

Points scored / game

111.9

116.2

Points allowed / game

113.6

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

31.4 %

3-point %

31.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

75.0 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

39.7

26.0

Assists / game

25.3

7.8

Steals / game

8.7

4.5

Blocks / game

5.3

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 35% · PHX 65%

ESPN BPI

ORL 50% · PHX 50%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		PHX
1-3	Record	1-2
113.6	Points scored / game	111.9
116.2	Points allowed / game	113.6
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L1	Current streak	L1
1-3	Last 10 games	1-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.