Nuggets vs Kings prediction NBA · Monday, March 8
At a glance
The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Monday, March 8 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 76% chance to win and projects a 119-110 score (Nuggets – Kings), about 229 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Kings L4, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Dylan Cardwell (Kings) and Maxime Raynaud (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Kings 110 – 119 Nuggets, a margin of about 8.8 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENSAC
Players to watch
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsKings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsRecent form
DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91SAC
126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
SAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DEN | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 110.2 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 122.1 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -10.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 54-28 (+5.2) | Last season | 22-60 (-10.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Kings
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.