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Kings vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Monday, January 25

Mon, Jan 25 · 9:30 PM ETBall Arena · NBCSN

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

108-123

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

11% win SACwin DEN 89%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin15.0

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Monday, January 25 at 9:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 89% chance to win and projects a 108-123 score (Kings – Nuggets), about 231 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Nuggets 123 – 108 Kings, a margin of about 15.0 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / SAC -10.1 per game

+12.7

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+15.0

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

66%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACDEN

110.2

Points scored / game

119.2

122.1

Points allowed / game

116.2

44.5 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

30.0 %

3-point %

32.8 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

73.1 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.5

22.8

Assists / game

26.0

6.8

Steals / game

10.0

2.5

Blocks / game

4.8

14.3

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 11% · DEN 89%

ESPN BPI

SAC 14% · DEN 86%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		DEN
0-4	Record	2-2
110.2	Points scored / game	119.2
122.1	Points allowed / game	116.2
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	2-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.