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Jazz vs 76ers prediction NBA · Monday, March 8

Mon, Mar 8 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-119

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

27% win UTAHwin PHI 73%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin7.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Monday, March 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 73% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Jazz – 76ers), about 230 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: 76ers W1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers) and Dominick Barlow (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The 76ers start with a clear edge. The model projects 76ers 119 – 111 Jazz, a margin of about 7.6 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+7.8

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

Back-to-back76ers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor 76ers

+7.6

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

42%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHPHI

116.1

Points scored / game

114.4

124.3

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.4 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

33.9 %

3-point %

32.6 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

76.6 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

26.8

Assists / game

24.6

5.0

Steals / game

9.8

6.4

Blocks / game

5.6

17.0

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 27% · PHI 73%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 27% · PHI 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		PHI
1-4	Record	4-1
116.1	Points scored / game	114.4
124.3	Points allowed / game	113.5
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L3	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.