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Knicks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Sunday, March 7

Sun, Mar 7 · 7:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBC

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-115

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

37% win NYwin SA 63%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin4.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Sunday, March 7 at 7:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 63% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Knicks – Spurs), about 226 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Spurs W3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 115 – 111 Knicks, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / NY +3.8 per game

+2.8

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Spurs

+4.2

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Knicks win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

NYSA

114.5

Points scored / game

118.9

110.0

Points allowed / game

111.1

42.2 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

35.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

75.8 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

45.0

26.8

Assists / game

28.2

7.2

Steals / game

9.8

4.4

Blocks / game

6.6

14.8

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 37% · SA 63%

ESPN BPI

NY 36% · SA 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		SA
2-3	Record	3-2
114.5	Points scored / game	118.9
110.0	Points allowed / game	111.1
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.