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Spurs vs Knicks prediction NBA · Friday, December 25

Fri, Dec 25 · 12:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · ABC, ESPN

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

113-114

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

49% win SAwin NY 51%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin0.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Friday, December 25 at 12:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Spurs – Knicks), about 226 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Knicks W2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Knicks 114 – 113 Spurs, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / SA +6.6 per game

-2.8

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Knicks

+0.4

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

SANY

118.9

Points scored / game

114.5

111.1

Points allowed / game

110.0

46.0 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

34.6 %

3-point %

35.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

78.3 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

48.2

28.2

Assists / game

26.8

9.8

Steals / game

7.2

6.6

Blocks / game

4.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 49% · NY 51%

ESPN BPI

SA 56% · NY 44%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

SA		NY
3-2	Record	2-3
118.9	Points scored / game	114.5
111.1	Points allowed / game	110.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.