76ers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, March 7
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Sunday, March 7 at 1:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 82% chance to win and projects a 106-118 score (76ers – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Celtics W3, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 118 – 106 76ers, a margin of about 11.2 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHIBOS
Players to watch
76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0reboundsCeltics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsRecent form
PHI
106-100W
114-106W
127-116L
106-93W
114-109BOS
125-120 OTL121-113W107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OTHead-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
BOSSecond opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHI | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 114.4 | Points scored / game | 116.1 |
| 113.5 | Points allowed / game | 108.3 |
| +0.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 45-37 (-0.2) | Last season | 56-26 (+7.7) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report 76ers
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.