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Celtics vs 76ers prediction NBA · Sunday, February 7

Sun, Feb 7 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · NBC

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-109

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

70% win BOSwin PHI 30%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin6.6

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, February 7 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 70% chance to win and projects a 115-109 score (Celtics – 76ers), about 224 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: 76ers W1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects 76ers 109 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / BOS +6.6 per game

-5.9

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor 76ers

-6.6

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Celtics win by 10+

39%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSPHI

116.1

Points scored / game

114.4

108.3

Points allowed / game

113.5

46.5 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

38.6 %

3-point %

32.6 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

76.0 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

42.2

27.8

Assists / game

24.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.8

3.8

Blocks / game

5.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 70% · PHI 30%

ESPN BPI

BOS 49% · PHI 51%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

BOS		PHI
3-1	Record	4-1
116.1	Points scored / game	114.4
108.3	Points allowed / game	113.5
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	4-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.