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Jazz vs Wizards prediction NBA · Saturday, March 6

Sat, Mar 6 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-119

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

40% win UTAHwin WSH 60%

FavoriteWSH

Projected margin3.2

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Saturday, March 6 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Wizards a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-119 score (Jazz – Wizards), about 234 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Wizards L2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Wizards, but the Jazz have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Wizards 119 – 115 Jazz, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Wizards and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / UTAH -7.0 per game

-0.7

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backJazz played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Wizards

+3.2

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Jazz win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHWSH

116.1

Points scored / game

113.1

124.3

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.4 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

33.9 %

3-point %

28.5 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

76.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

26.8

Assists / game

25.8

5.0

Steals / game

7.4

6.4

Blocks / game

5.6

17.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 40% · WSH 60%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 47% · WSH 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		WSH
1-4	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	113.1
124.3	Points allowed / game	122.2
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L3	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.