Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Timberwolves vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, March 5

Fri, Mar 5 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

115-112

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

62% win MINwin PHX 38%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin3.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Friday, March 5 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 62% chance to win and projects a 115-112 score (Timberwolves – Suns), about 227 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Suns L1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 112 – 115 Timberwolves, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / MIN +5.2 per game

-6.6

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Suns

-3.8

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Timberwolves win by 10+

31%

Stat comparison Current season

MINPHX

118.7

Points scored / game

111.9

112.6

Points allowed / game

113.6

47.3 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

38.4 %

3-point %

31.9 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

62.7 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

39.7

27.0

Assists / game

25.3

9.2

Steals / game

8.7

4.4

Blocks / game

5.3

16.2

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 62% · PHX 38%

ESPN BPI

MIN 69% · PHX 31%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		PHX
3-2	Record	1-2
118.7	Points scored / game	111.9
112.6	Points allowed / game	113.6
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.