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Suns vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, December 21

Mon, Dec 21 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family CBS5, KPHE, KPHO

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

108-118

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

21% win PHXwin MIN 79%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin10.0

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, December 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 79% chance to win and projects a 108-118 score (Suns – Timberwolves), about 226 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 108 Suns, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / PHX -1.4 per game

+6.6

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+10.0

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

50%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXMIN

111.9

Points scored / game

118.7

113.6

Points allowed / game

112.6

45.6 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

31.9 %

3-point %

38.4 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

73.9 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

51.6

25.3

Assists / game

27.0

8.7

Steals / game

9.2

5.3

Blocks / game

4.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 21% · MIN 79%

ESPN BPI

PHX 26% · MIN 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		MIN
1-2	Record	3-2
111.9	Points scored / game	118.7
113.6	Points allowed / game	112.6
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
L1	Current streak	L2
1-2	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.