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Knicks vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, March 4

Thu, Mar 4 · 9:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · Prime Video

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

117-109

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

72% win NYwin DAL 28%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin7.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Thursday, March 4 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 72% chance to win and projects a 117-109 score (Knicks – Mavericks), about 226 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 117 Knicks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / NY +3.8 per game

-6.7

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-7.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Knicks win by 10+

42%

Stat comparison Current season

NYDAL

114.5

Points scored / game

114.1

110.0

Points allowed / game

117.4

42.2 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

35.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

75.8 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

44.2

26.8

Assists / game

27.6

7.2

Steals / game

9.0

4.4

Blocks / game

7.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 72% · DAL 28%

ESPN BPI

NY 60% · DAL 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		DAL
2-3	Record	3-2
114.5	Points scored / game	114.1
110.0	Points allowed / game	117.4
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.