Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Mavericks vs Knicks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 16

Sat, Jan 16 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

107-119

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

17% win DALwin NY 83%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin12.0

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Saturday, January 16 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 83% chance to win and projects a 107-119 score (Mavericks – Knicks), about 226 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Knicks W2, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Knicks 119 – 107 Mavericks, a margin of about 12.0 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / DAL -2.8 per game

+6.7

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Knicks

+12.0

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

56%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALNY

114.1

Points scored / game

114.5

117.4

Points allowed / game

110.0

49.0 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

34.6 %

3-point %

35.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

48.2

27.6

Assists / game

26.8

9.0

Steals / game

7.2

7.4

Blocks / game

4.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 17% · NY 83%

ESPN BPI

DAL 30% · NY 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		NY
3-2	Record	2-3
114.1	Points scored / game	114.5
117.4	Points allowed / game	110.0
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W2	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.