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Spurs vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 3

Wed, Mar 3 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · ESPN

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

117-113

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

61% win SAwin DEN 39%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin3.5

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Wednesday, March 3 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 61% chance to win and projects a 117-113 score (Spurs – Nuggets), about 231 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 113 – 117 Spurs, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / SA +6.6 per game

-4.0

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-3.5

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Spurs win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

SADEN

118.9

Points scored / game

119.2

111.1

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

34.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

78.3 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.5

28.2

Assists / game

26.0

9.8

Steals / game

10.0

6.6

Blocks / game

4.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 61% · DEN 39%

ESPN BPI

SA 64% · DEN 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
118.9	Points scored / game	119.2
111.1	Points allowed / game	116.2
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W3	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	2-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.