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Nuggets vs Spurs prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 1:00 PM ETMoody Center · ABC

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

111-119

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

26% win DENwin SA 74%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin8.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, February 28 at 1:00 PM ET at Moody Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 74% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Nuggets – Spurs), about 231 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Spurs W3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 119 – 111 Nuggets, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / DEN +2.6 per game

+4.0

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Spurs

+8.1

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

44%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENSA

119.2

Points scored / game

118.9

116.2

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.8 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

32.8 %

3-point %

34.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

45.0

26.0

Assists / game

28.2

10.0

Steals / game

9.8

4.8

Blocks / game

6.6

15.3

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 26% · SA 74%

ESPN BPI

DEN 29% · SA 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		SA
2-2	Record	3-2
119.2	Points scored / game	118.9
116.2	Points allowed / game	111.1
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
2-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.