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Jazz vs Bucks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 3

Wed, Mar 3 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-119

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

36% win UTAHwin MIL 64%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin4.3

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, March 3 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 64% chance to win and projects a 114-119 score (Jazz – Bucks), about 233 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Bucks L1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bucks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 119 – 114 Jazz, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+0.6

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Bucks

+4.3

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Jazz win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHMIL

116.1

Points scored / game

111.4

124.3

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.4 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

33.9 %

3-point %

34.0 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

26.8

Assists / game

24.6

5.0

Steals / game

5.8

6.4

Blocks / game

4.0

17.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 36% · MIL 64%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 61% · MIL 39%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

UTAH		MIL
1-4	Record	1-4
116.1	Points scored / game	111.4
124.3	Points allowed / game	119.0
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L3	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.