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Bucks vs Jazz prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 26

Tue, Jan 26 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-116

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

54% win MILwin UTAH 46%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin1.3

Projected total234

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Tuesday, January 26 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 54% chance to win and projects a 118-116 score (Bucks – Jazz), about 234 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Jazz L3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 116 – 118 Bucks, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / MIL -6.4 per game

-0.6

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Jazz

-1.3

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

MILUTAH

111.4

Points scored / game

116.1

119.0

Points allowed / game

124.3

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

34.0 %

3-point %

33.9 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

71.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

24.6

Assists / game

26.8

5.8

Steals / game

5.0

4.0

Blocks / game

6.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 54% · UTAH 46%

ESPN BPI

MIL 33% · UTAH 67%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIL		UTAH
1-4	Record	1-4
111.4	Points scored / game	116.1
119.0	Points allowed / game	124.3
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.