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Wizards vs Kings prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2

Tue, Mar 2 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

114-115

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

47% win WSHwin SAC 53%

FavoriteSAC

Projected margin0.9

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Tuesday, March 2 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Kings a 53% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Wizards – Kings), about 230 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Kings L4, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings) and Keegan Murray (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Kings 115 – 114 Wizards, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Kings and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / WSH -7.7 per game

-2.4

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Kings

+0.9

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Wizards win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHSAC

113.1

Points scored / game

110.2

122.2

Points allowed / game

122.1

48.0 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

28.5 %

3-point %

30.0 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

83.1 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

41.5

25.8

Assists / game

22.8

7.4

Steals / game

6.8

5.6

Blocks / game

2.5

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 47% · SAC 53%

ESPN BPI

WSH 65% · SAC 35%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

WSH		SAC
2-3	Record	0-4
113.1	Points scored / game	110.2
122.2	Points allowed / game	122.1
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L2	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.