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Kings vs Wizards prediction NBA · Thursday, January 28

Thu, Jan 28 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

111-118

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

29% win SACwin WSH 71%

FavoriteWSH

Projected margin6.9

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Thursday, January 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Wizards a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Kings – Wizards), about 230 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Wizards L2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) and Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Wizards are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Wizards 118 – 111 Kings, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Wizards and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / SAC -10.1 per game

+2.4

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Wizards

+6.9

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACWSH

110.2

Points scored / game

113.1

122.1

Points allowed / game

122.2

44.5 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

30.0 %

3-point %

28.5 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

73.1 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

40.0

22.8

Assists / game

25.8

6.8

Steals / game

7.4

2.5

Blocks / game

5.6

14.3

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 29% · WSH 71%

ESPN BPI

SAC 24% · WSH 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		WSH
0-4	Record	2-3
110.2	Points scored / game	113.1
122.1	Points allowed / game	122.2
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L4	Current streak	L2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.