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Pistons vs Bucks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2

Tue, Mar 2 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-109

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

73% win DETwin MIL 27%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin7.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Tuesday, March 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 73% chance to win and projects a 116-109 score (Pistons – Bucks), about 225 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Bucks L1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Bucks 109 – 116 Pistons, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / DET +6.5 per game

-12.9

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPistons played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Bucks

-7.8

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Pistons win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

DETMIL

115.4

Points scored / game

111.4

107.8

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.9 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

37.9 %

3-point %

34.0 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

74.4 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

8.0

Steals / game

5.8

7.2

Blocks / game

4.0

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 73% · MIL 27%

ESPN BPI

DET 78% · MIL 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		MIL
4-1	Record	1-4
115.4	Points scored / game	111.4
107.8	Points allowed / game	119.0
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.