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Bucks vs Pistons prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 7:30 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · MyMi, Bucks App
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · away
Projected score
106-120
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · home
13% win MILwin DET 87%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin14.0
Projected total226
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Friday, November 27 at 7:30 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 87% chance to win and projects a 106-120 score (Bucks – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pistons W1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pistons 120 – 106 Bucks, a margin of about 14.0 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

  • The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pistons' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / MIL -6.4 per game
+12.9
Home-court advantagePistons at home
+2.3
InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Pistons
+14.0

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+
62%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
17%
Bucks win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

MILDET
111.4
Points scored / game
115.4
119.0
Points allowed / game
107.8
44.9 %
Field goal %
45.9 %
34.0 %
3-point %
37.9 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.4
71.6 %
Free throw %
74.4 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
46.8
24.6
Assists / game
27.0
5.8
Steals / game
8.0
4.0
Blocks / game
7.2
16.8
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 27MILthis gameDETMar 2DETupcomingMILMar 11MILupcomingDETMar 18DETupcomingMIL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIL 13% · DET 87%
ESPN BPI
MIL 14% · DET 86%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MILDET
1-4Record4-1
111.4Points scored / game115.4
119.0Points allowed / game107.8
-6.4Adjusted margin / game+6.5
L1Current streakW1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-2 roadHome / road record2-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)Last season60-22 (+8.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.