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Warriors vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2

Tue, Mar 2 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-114

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

47% win GSwin DAL 53%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin1.0

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Tuesday, March 2 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 53% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Warriors – Mavericks), about 227 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 1.0 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / GS -0.8 per game

-2.0

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+1.0

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Warriors win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

GSDAL

115.5

Points scored / game

114.1

116.4

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.0 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

36.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

82.2 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

25.6

Assists / game

27.6

9.6

Steals / game

9.0

3.8

Blocks / game

7.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 47% · DAL 53%

ESPN BPI

GS 53% · DAL 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

GS		DAL
2-3	Record	3-2
115.5	Points scored / game	114.1
116.4	Points allowed / game	117.4
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.