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Mavericks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 22

Tue, Dec 22 · 10:30 PM ETChase Center · NBC, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-117

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

34% win DALwin GS 66%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin5.2

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Tuesday, December 22 at 10:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 66% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (Mavericks – Warriors), about 229 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Warriors W2, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors) and Moses Moody (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 117 – 112 Mavericks, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / DAL -2.8 per game

+2.0

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Warriors

+5.2

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Mavericks win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

DALGS

114.1

Points scored / game

115.5

117.4

Points allowed / game

116.4

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

36.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

43.8

27.6

Assists / game

25.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.6

7.4

Blocks / game

3.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 34% · GS 66%

ESPN BPI

DAL 47% · GS 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		GS
3-2	Record	2-3
114.1	Points scored / game	115.5
117.4	Points allowed / game	116.4
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W2	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.