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Grizzlies vs Knicks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 2

Tue, Mar 2 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

111-118

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

29% win MEMwin NY 71%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin7.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Tuesday, March 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Grizzlies – Knicks), about 228 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Knicks W2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Knicks, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Knicks 118 – 111 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / MEM -1.8 per game

+5.6

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Knicks

+7.0

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMNY

115.2

Points scored / game

114.5

117.3

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

39.1 %

3-point %

35.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

82.8 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

48.2

25.0

Assists / game

26.8

6.3

Steals / game

7.2

6.3

Blocks / game

4.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 29% · NY 71%

ESPN BPI

MEM 26% · NY 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		NY
4-0	Record	2-3
115.2	Points scored / game	114.5
117.3	Points allowed / game	110.0
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W4	Current streak	W2
4-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.