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Knicks vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-113

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

58% win NYwin MEM 42%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin2.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Monday, February 15 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 58% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Knicks – Grizzlies), about 228 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Grizzlies 113 – 115 Knicks, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / NY +3.8 per game

-5.6

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-2.4

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Knicks win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

NYMEM

114.5

Points scored / game

115.2

110.0

Points allowed / game

117.3

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

35.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

75.8 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

50.0

26.8

Assists / game

25.0

7.2

Steals / game

6.3

4.4

Blocks / game

6.3

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 58% · MEM 42%

ESPN BPI

NY 66% · MEM 34%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		MEM
2-3	Record	4-0
114.5	Points scored / game	115.2
110.0	Points allowed / game	117.3
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W2	Current streak	W4
2-3	Last 10 games	4-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.