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Wizards vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, March 1

Mon, Mar 1 · 9:30 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · NBCSN, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-120

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

20% win WSHwin PHX 80%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin10.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, March 1 at 9:30 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 80% chance to win and projects a 109-120 score (Wizards – Suns), about 229 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Suns L1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Suns dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 120 – 109 Wizards, a margin of about 10.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / WSH -7.7 per game

+6.3

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Suns

+10.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

51%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHPHX

113.1

Points scored / game

111.9

122.2

Points allowed / game

113.6

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

28.5 %

3-point %

31.9 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

83.1 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

39.7

25.8

Assists / game

25.3

7.4

Steals / game

8.7

5.6

Blocks / game

5.3

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 20% · PHX 80%

ESPN BPI

WSH 39% · PHX 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		PHX
2-3	Record	1-2
113.1	Points scored / game	111.9
122.2	Points allowed / game	113.6
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.