Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Suns vs Wizards prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

116-112

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

63% win PHXwin WSH 37%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin4.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, February 15 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 63% chance to win and projects a 116-112 score (Suns – Wizards), about 227 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Wizards L2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Wizards 112 – 116 Suns, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / PHX -1.4 per game

-6.3

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Wizards

-4.2

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Suns win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXWSH

111.9

Points scored / game

113.1

113.6

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.6 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

31.9 %

3-point %

28.5 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

73.9 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

40.0

25.3

Assists / game

25.8

8.7

Steals / game

7.4

5.3

Blocks / game

5.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 63% · WSH 37%

ESPN BPI

PHX 50% · WSH 50%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		WSH
1-2	Record	2-3
111.9	Points scored / game	113.1
113.6	Points allowed / game	122.2
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-2	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.