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Heat vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 9:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBC

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-119

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

29% win MIAwin HOU 71%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin6.8

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Sunday, February 28 at 9:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Heat – Rockets), about 231 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Rockets W5, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Rockets 119 – 112 Heat, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / MIA -0.6 per game

+7.2

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Rockets

+6.8

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Heat win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MIAHOU

118.6

Points scored / game

117.5

119.2

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.3 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

31.7 %

3-point %

40.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

71.7 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

8.4

Steals / game

10.2

5.4

Blocks / game

6.0

14.2

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 29% · HOU 71%

ESPN BPI

MIA 31% · HOU 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		HOU
1-4	Record	5-0
118.6	Points scored / game	117.5
119.2	Points allowed / game	109.7
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W1	Current streak	W5
1-4	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.