Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Rockets vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, November 16

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

115-114

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

52% win HOUwin MIA 48%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin0.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Monday, November 16 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Rockets – Heat), about 230 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Heat W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 114 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / HOU +6.7 per game

-7.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Heat

-0.6

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUMIA

117.5

Points scored / game

118.6

109.7

Points allowed / game

119.2

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

40.4 %

3-point %

31.7 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

84.7 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

42.8

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

10.2

Steals / game

8.4

6.0

Blocks / game

5.4

15.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 52% · MIA 48%

ESPN BPI

HOU 59% · MIA 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		MIA
5-0	Record	1-4
117.5	Points scored / game	118.6
109.7	Points allowed / game	119.2
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W5	Current streak	W1
5-0	Last 10 games	1-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.