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Celtics vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 7:00 PM ETTarget Center · NBC

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

114-113

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

50% win BOSwin MIN 50%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin0.0

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, February 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 50% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Celtics – Timberwolves), about 227 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Timberwolves 113 – 114 Celtics, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / BOS +6.6 per game

-1.4

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

-0.0

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Celtics win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSMIN

116.1

Points scored / game

118.7

108.3

Points allowed / game

112.6

46.5 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

38.6 %

3-point %

38.4 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

76.0 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

51.6

27.8

Assists / game

27.0

9.0

Steals / game

9.2

3.8

Blocks / game

4.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 50% · MIN 50%

ESPN BPI

BOS 43% · MIN 57%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

BOS		MIN
3-1	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	118.7
108.3	Points allowed / game	112.6
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W3	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.