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Timberwolves vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, February 12

Fri, Feb 12 · 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · Prime Video

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-116

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

36% win MINwin BOS 64%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin4.6

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Friday, February 12 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 64% chance to win and projects a 111-116 score (Timberwolves – Celtics), about 227 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Celtics W3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Celtics 116 – 111 Timberwolves, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / MIN +5.2 per game

+1.4

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Celtics

+4.6

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Timberwolves win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

MINBOS

118.7

Points scored / game

116.1

112.6

Points allowed / game

108.3

47.3 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

38.4 %

3-point %

38.6 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

62.7 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

44.3

27.0

Assists / game

27.8

9.2

Steals / game

9.0

4.4

Blocks / game

3.8

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 36% · BOS 64%

ESPN BPI

MIN 48% · BOS 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		BOS
3-2	Record	3-1
118.7	Points scored / game	116.1
112.6	Points allowed / game	108.3
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.