Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Kings vs Hornets prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

104-119

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

12% win SACwin CHA 88%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin14.8

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Sunday, February 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 88% chance to win and projects a 104-119 score (Kings – Hornets), about 223 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Hornets L1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Kon Knueppel (Hornets) and Coby White (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hornets dominate this matchup. The model projects Hornets 119 – 104 Kings, a margin of about 14.8 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / SAC -10.1 per game

+11.2

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor Hornets

+14.8

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

65%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACCHA

110.2

Points scored / game

111.6

122.1

Points allowed / game

110.3

44.5 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

30.0 %

3-point %

30.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

47.4

22.8

Assists / game

20.6

6.8

Steals / game

6.8

2.5

Blocks / game

5.2

14.3

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 12% · CHA 88%

ESPN BPI

SAC 19% · CHA 81%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		CHA
0-4	Record	3-2
110.2	Points scored / game	111.6
122.1	Points allowed / game	110.3
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.