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Kings vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, February 27

Sat, Feb 27 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

108-121

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

16% win SACwin MEM 84%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin12.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Saturday, February 27 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 84% chance to win and projects a 108-121 score (Kings – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 121 – 108 Kings, a margin of about 12.7 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / SAC -10.1 per game

+8.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+12.7

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

59%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACMEM

110.2

Points scored / game

115.2

122.1

Points allowed / game

117.3

44.5 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.0 %

3-point %

39.1 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

73.1 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

50.0

22.8

Assists / game

25.0

6.8

Steals / game

6.3

2.5

Blocks / game

6.3

14.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

MEM lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 16% · MEM 84%

ESPN BPI

SAC 24% · MEM 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		MEM
0-4	Record	4-0
110.2	Points scored / game	115.2
122.1	Points allowed / game	117.3
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L4	Current streak	W4
0-4	Last 10 games	4-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.