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Hornets vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, February 26

Fri, Feb 26 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

105-115

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

20% win CHAwin HOU 80%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin10.4

Projected total220

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Friday, February 26 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 80% chance to win and projects a 105-115 score (Hornets – Rockets), about 220 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Rockets W5, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hornets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Reed Sheppard (Rockets) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 115 – 105 Hornets, a margin of about 10.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 220 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / CHA +1.1 per game

+5.6

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHornets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Rockets

+10.4

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

51%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Hornets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHAHOU

111.6

Points scored / game

117.5

110.3

Points allowed / game

109.7

41.7 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

30.6 %

3-point %

40.4 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

85.2 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

44.8

20.6

Assists / game

28.2

6.8

Steals / game

10.2

5.2

Blocks / game

6.0

19.0

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 20% · HOU 80%

ESPN BPI

CHA 22% · HOU 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		HOU
3-2	Record	5-0
111.6	Points scored / game	117.5
110.3	Points allowed / game	109.7
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L1	Current streak	W5
3-2	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.