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Rockets vs Hornets prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

113-109

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

63% win HOUwin CHA 37%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin4.2

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Friday, January 22 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 63% chance to win and projects a 113-109 score (Rockets – Hornets), about 222 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Hornets L1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets) and Grant Williams (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 109 – 113 Rockets, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / HOU +6.7 per game

-5.6

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Hornets

-4.2

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Rockets win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUCHA

117.5

Points scored / game

111.6

109.7

Points allowed / game

110.3

51.7 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

40.4 %

3-point %

30.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

84.7 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

47.4

28.2

Assists / game

20.6

10.2

Steals / game

6.8

6.0

Blocks / game

5.2

15.8

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 63% · CHA 37%

ESPN BPI

HOU 65% · CHA 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		CHA
5-0	Record	3-2
117.5	Points scored / game	111.6
109.7	Points allowed / game	110.3
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W5	Current streak	L1
5-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.