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Pacers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, February 26

Fri, Feb 26 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · away
Projected score
107-122
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
12% win INDwin MIN 88%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin14.9
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Friday, February 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 88% chance to win and projects a 107-122 score (Pacers – Timberwolves), about 229 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 122 – 107 Pacers, a margin of about 14.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / IND -4.7 per game
+9.9
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable
+2.7
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+14.9

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
65%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
16%
Pacers win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

INDMIN
113.2
Points scored / game
118.7
118.8
Points allowed / game
112.6
47.1 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
31.2 %
3-point %
38.4 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
72.7 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
29.4
Assists / game
27.0
6.4
Steals / game
9.2
4.8
Blocks / game
4.4
14.8
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2MINupcomingINDFeb 26INDthis gameMIN

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
IND 12% · MIN 88%
ESPN BPI
IND 29% · MIN 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

INDMIN
2-3Record3-2
113.2Points scored / game118.7
118.8Points allowed / game112.6
-4.7Adjusted margin / game+5.2
L2Current streakL2
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.