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Timberwolves vs Pacers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND, DAZN MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · away
Projected score
120-109
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · home
80% win MINwin IND 20%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin10.3
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Saturday, January 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 80% chance to win and projects a 120-109 score (Timberwolves – Pacers), about 229 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Pacers L2, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 109 – 120 Timberwolves, a margin of about 10.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

  • The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / MIN +5.2 per game
-9.9
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable
-2.7
Expected marginfor Pacers
-10.3

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
5%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Timberwolves win by 10+
51%

Stat comparison Current season

MININD
118.7
Points scored / game
113.2
112.6
Points allowed / game
118.8
47.3 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
38.4 %
3-point %
31.2 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
62.7 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
44.0
27.0
Assists / game
29.4
9.2
Steals / game
6.4
4.4
Blocks / game
4.8
16.2
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2MINthis gameINDFeb 26INDupcomingMIN

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIN 80% · IND 20%
ESPN BPI
MIN 60% · IND 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MININD
3-2Record2-3
118.7Points scored / game113.2
112.6Points allowed / game118.8
+5.2Adjusted margin / game-4.7
L2Current streakL2
3-2Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)Last season19-63 (-8.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.