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Wizards vs Bucks prediction NBA · Thursday, February 25

Thu, Feb 25 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-119

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

30% win WSHwin MIL 70%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin6.7

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Thursday, February 25 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 70% chance to win and projects a 113-119 score (Wizards – Bucks), about 232 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Bucks L1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bucks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 119 – 113 Wizards, a margin of about 6.7 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / WSH -7.7 per game

+1.3

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Bucks

+6.7

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHMIL

113.1

Points scored / game

111.4

122.2

Points allowed / game

119.0

48.0 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

28.5 %

3-point %

34.0 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

83.1 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

49.8

25.8

Assists / game

24.6

7.4

Steals / game

5.8

5.6

Blocks / game

4.0

13.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

WSH lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 30% · MIL 70%

ESPN BPI

WSH 55% · MIL 45%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

WSH		MIL
2-3	Record	1-4
113.1	Points scored / game	111.4
122.2	Points allowed / game	119.0
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.