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Bucks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Saturday, February 13

Sat, Feb 13 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

117-113

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

62% win MILwin WSH 38%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin3.7

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, February 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 62% chance to win and projects a 117-113 score (Bucks – Wizards), about 230 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Wizards L2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Bucks, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Wizards 113 – 117 Bucks, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / MIL -6.4 per game

-1.3

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Wizards

-3.7

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Bucks win by 10+

31%

Stat comparison Current season

MILWSH

111.4

Points scored / game

113.1

119.0

Points allowed / game

122.2

44.9 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

34.0 %

3-point %

28.5 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

71.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

24.6

Assists / game

25.8

5.8

Steals / game

7.4

4.0

Blocks / game

5.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

WSH lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 62% · WSH 38%

ESPN BPI

MIL 37% · WSH 63%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIL		WSH
1-4	Record	2-3
111.4	Points scored / game	113.1
119.0	Points allowed / game	122.2
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.