Thunder vs Knicks prediction NBA · Thursday, February 25
At a glance
The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Thursday, February 25 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 57% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Thunder – Knicks), about 221 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Knicks W2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Knicks 112 – 110 Thunder, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCNY
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsKnicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| OKC | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 114.5 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 110.0 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 53-29 (+6.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Knicks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.