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Knicks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, February 7

Sun, Feb 7 · 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · NBC
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · away
Projected score
110-112
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · home
42% win NYwin OKC 58%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin2.4
Projected total221
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Sunday, February 7 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 58% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Knicks – Thunder), about 221 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Thunder L1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Thunder 112 – 110 Knicks, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / NY +3.8 per game
+3.7
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable
-3.6
Expected marginfor Thunder
+2.4

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Knicks win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

NYOKC
114.5
Points scored / game
115.8
110.0
Points allowed / game
106.9
42.2 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
35.9 %
3-point %
30.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
75.8 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
46.0
26.8
Assists / game
22.0
7.2
Steals / game
8.4
4.4
Blocks / game
6.8
14.8
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Feb 7NYthis gameOKCFeb 25OKCupcomingNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NY 42% · OKC 58%
ESPN BPI
NY 37% · OKC 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NYOKC
2-3Record4-1
114.5Points scored / game115.8
110.0Points allowed / game106.9
+3.8Adjusted margin / game+7.6
W2Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
1-1 roadHome / road record3-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)Last season64-18 (+11.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.