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Pacers vs Kings prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-113

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

57% win INDwin SAC 43%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin2.2

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, February 17 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Pacers – Kings), about 229 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Kings L4, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Dylan Cardwell (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Kings 113 – 116 Pacers, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / IND -4.7 per game

-5.4

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Kings

-2.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pacers win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

INDSAC

113.2

Points scored / game

110.2

118.8

Points allowed / game

122.1

47.1 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

31.2 %

3-point %

30.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

72.7 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

41.5

29.4

Assists / game

22.8

6.4

Steals / game

6.8

4.8

Blocks / game

2.5

14.8

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 57% · SAC 43%

ESPN BPI

IND 78% · SAC 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		SAC
2-3	Record	0-4
113.2	Points scored / game	110.2
118.8	Points allowed / game	122.1
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L2	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.