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Kings vs Pacers prediction NBA · Saturday, February 13

Sat, Feb 13 · 2:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

111-118

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

29% win SACwin IND 71%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin6.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Saturday, February 13 at 2:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Kings – Pacers), about 229 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Pacers L2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Ivica Zubac (Pacers) and T.J. McConnell (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pacers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 118 – 111 Kings, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / SAC -10.1 per game

+5.4

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Pacers

+6.8

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACIND

110.2

Points scored / game

113.2

122.1

Points allowed / game

118.8

44.5 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

30.0 %

3-point %

31.2 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

73.1 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.0

22.8

Assists / game

29.4

6.8

Steals / game

6.4

2.5

Blocks / game

4.8

14.3

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 29% · IND 71%

ESPN BPI

SAC 16% · IND 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		IND
0-4	Record	2-3
110.2	Points scored / game	113.2
122.1	Points allowed / game	118.8
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L4	Current streak	L2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.